Running bad in the endgame is -EV

Played two tournies tonight and made 2 deep runs. Played a 5$ MTT and busted around 63rd out of ~400 when I restole in the SB with QJ behind OTB's open minraise. He called with A9 and I didn't suck out. Hour one saw me win some big pots and build a nice stack, but I ran dead for the next hour and a half, and when big hands showed up, they shit the bed hard.

The second tourny was another 10$ 90x KO. I racked up a ton of KOs early and mid stages. 6 by my count, several of them for big stacks. Twice I was #2 in chips, once with under 30 players left. But as it was a turbo, going 3 levels with big hands sucking it up ain't gonna get 'er done.

So if you've played these things, you know people are raising about top 30. Sometimes more. People open KQ, QJ, KT, etc. So after watching everyone raise with crap, but being totally card dead, I finally pick up a nice hand to look at and lose my shirt.

Full Tilt Poker Game #5248972533: $10 + $1 KO Sit & Go (39901488), Table 7 - 600/1200 Ante 150 - No Limit Holdem - 2:45:39 ET - 2008/02/14
Seat 2: CheckinMyAA (22,825)
Seat 3: Aceten48 (22,645)
Seat 4: SnoWmaN44 (11,580)
Seat 5: bigslickschu (6,830)
Seat 6: Carlito927 (33,075)
Seat 7: fear3381 (5,612)
Seat 8: TimminsAH (20,545)
Seat 9: big_fish72 (15,812)
CheckinMyAA antes 150
Aceten48 antes 150
SnoWmaN44 antes 150
bigslickschu antes 150
Carlito927 antes 150
fear3381 antes 150
TimminsAH antes 150
big_fish72 antes 150
Aceten48 posts the small blind of 600
SnoWmaN44 posts the big blind of 1,200
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CheckinMyAA [Ad Qc]
bigslickschu folds
Carlito927 folds
fear3381 has 15 seconds left to act
fear3381 folds
TimminsAH folds
big_fish72 raises to 3,500
CheckinMyAA raises to 22,675, and is all in
Aceten48 folds
SnoWmaN44 folds
big_fish72 calls 12,162, and is all in
CheckinMyAA shows [Ad Qc]
big_fish72 shows [Ah As]
Uncalled bet of 7,013 returned to CheckinMyAA
*** FLOP *** [3h 4s Tc]
*** TURN *** [3h 4s Tc] [Jh]
*** RIVER *** [3h 4s Tc Jh] [9h]
CheckinMyAA shows Ace Queen high
big_fish72 shows a pair of Aces
big_fish72 wins the pot (34,324) with a pair of Aces
CheckinMyAA: ugh


Then AK shits a brick vs a short stack while we're on the bubble ... who calls on the bubble with this hand?? I don't hate my shove on the flop. Thoughts welcome though. Here I'm thinking if he's like your average bubble nit, he'll fold anything weak.


Full Tilt Poker Game #5249025117: $10 + $1 KO Sit & Go (39901488), Table 7 - 800/1600 Ante 200 - No Limit Holdem - 2:53:14 ET - 2008/02/14
Seat 2: CheckinMyAA (22,787)
Seat 3: Aceten48 (26,795)
Seat 5: bigslickschu (11,260)
Seat 8: TimminsAH (12,645)
Seat 9: big_fish72 (32,662)
CheckinMyAA antes 200
Aceten48 antes 200
bigslickschu antes 200
TimminsAH antes 200
big_fish72 antes 200
Aceten48 posts the small blind of 800
bigslickschu posts the big blind of 1,600
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CheckinMyAA [Ac Ks]
TimminsAH folds
big_fish72 folds
CheckinMyAA raises to 4,000
Aceten48 folds
bigslickschu calls 2,400
*** FLOP *** [5c Td 7c]
bigslickschu checks
CheckinMyAA bets 18,587, and is all in
bigslickschu calls 7,060, and is all in
CheckinMyAA shows [Ac Ks]
bigslickschu shows [7d 6s]
Uncalled bet of 11,527 returned to CheckinMyAA
*** TURN *** [5c Td 7c] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [5c Td 7c 8s] [5h]
CheckinMyAA shows a pair of Fives
bigslickschu shows two pair, Sevens and Fives
bigslickschu wins the pot (23,920) with two pair, Sevens and Fives
CheckinMyAA: grrrr
The blinds are now 1,000/2,000 with an ante of 250


Then we finally break the bubble and get to the FT, and first hand, I get sucked out on again.


Full Tilt Poker Game #5249068574: $10 + $1 KO Sit & Go (39901488), Table 7 - 1200/2400 Ante 300 - No Limit Holdem - 2:59:40 ET - 2008/02/14
Seat 1: Carlito927 (24,286)
Seat 2: CheckinMyAA (11,527)
Seat 3: Aceten48 (23,345)
Seat 4: JFossum (14,576)
Seat 5: bigslickschu (27,120)
Seat 6: supertoes (73,301)
Seat 7: zip4life (51,688)
Seat 8: TimminsAH (4,145)
Seat 9: big_fish72 (40,012)
Carlito927 antes 300
CheckinMyAA antes 300
Aceten48 antes 300
JFossum antes 300
bigslickschu antes 300
supertoes antes 300
zip4life antes 300
TimminsAH antes 300
big_fish72 antes 300
Aceten48 posts the small blind of 1,200
JFossum posts the big blind of 2,400
xIAx ByTheWay (Observer): cash money james mi boy
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CheckinMyAA [Ts Ah]
bigslickschu folds
Aceten48: CHEYA!
supertoes has 15 seconds left to act
CheckinMyAA: yey
supertoes folds
zip4life raises to 9,600
TimminsAH folds
big_fish72 folds
Carlito927 folds
CheckinMyAA raises to 11,227, and is all in
Aceten48 folds
JFossum folds
zip4life calls 1,627
CheckinMyAA shows [Ts Ah]
zip4life shows [Kh Qs]
Aceten48: GG guys
xIAx ByTheWay (Observer): let that loser timmins go out first
*** FLOP *** [8c Kd 9c]
*** TURN *** [8c Kd 9c] [6d]
*** RIVER *** [8c Kd 9c 6d] [9s]
CheckinMyAA shows a pair of Nines
zip4life shows two pair, Kings and Nines
zip4life wins the pot (28,754) with two pair, Kings and Nines
CheckinMyAA: Boooo
CheckinMyAA stands up


Today was one of those days where I ran really good early, but then couldn't catch a break when it really mattered. Frustrating, to be sure. Still a 20$ net profit on that tourny, but it could have / should have been so much more...

I do enjoy this tournament a lot though. I'm 2 for 2 in making deep runs, so it's only a matter of time before I get lucky when it matters.

Later days! I leave you with one of the (positive) highlights of the night:

Seat 1: fear3381 (8,037)
Seat 3: SnoWmaN44 (13,380)
Seat 4: snowman835 (6,840)
Seat 5: mdlyons81 (13,245)
Seat 6: CheckinMyAA (23,065)
Seat 8: Attackmac (9,535)
Seat 9: CASHMEOUT1 (520)
fear3381 antes 125
SnoWmaN44 antes 125
snowman835 antes 125
mdlyons81 antes 125
CheckinMyAA antes 125
Attackmac antes 125
CASHMEOUT1 antes 125
mdlyons81 posts the small blind of 500
CheckinMyAA posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CheckinMyAA [Ah Qc]
Attackmac folds
CASHMEOUT1 calls 395, and is all in
fear3381 folds
SnoWmaN44 calls 1,000
snowman835 raises to 6,715, and is all in
mdlyons81 folds
CheckinMyAA raises to 22,940, and is all in
SnoWmaN44 folds
CheckinMyAA shows [Ah Qc]
CASHMEOUT1 shows [3h Ac]
snowman835 shows [7c 7s]
Uncalled bet of 16,225 returned to CheckinMyAA
*** FLOP *** [4c Qd Qs]
*** TURN *** [4c Qd Qs] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [4c Qd Qs Qh] [Th]
CheckinMyAA shows four of a kind, Queens
snowman835 shows a full house, Queens full of Sevens
CheckinMyAA wins the side pot (13,350) with four of a kind, Queens
CASHMEOUT1 shows three of a kind, Queens
CheckinMyAA wins the main pot (2,850) with four of a kind, Queens
CheckinMyAA: DQB!
CASHMEOUT1 stands up
snowman835 stands up

Roll: $567 + 2x$26 = $619